I’ve just begun to look into this idea. For instance, lets say that when I did my calculation I discovered that I could predict the exact point of the bottom of the DJIA. Which I did btw.. well, I was off by 30 points. I now we are watching my upswing calculation bear fruit [I said the market will swing rapidly up to 9000 and then bounce between 6500 and 9000 for more than a year.] This was done back on my old blog before I switched to Blogger, and a watered down form since the beginning of this year. Well, anyway, to my point… Suppose we call this a theory and it holds true, and like Moore’s Law, it becomes the Hatch Law of Financial Fluctuations. I basically assumed a discount of around 9% for 8 years, found the floor, and then calculated the recovery at a conservative 3% or so. This will continue back and forth until equilibrium is found, and then it all depends on the level of financial conservatism that spreads across the US economy and financial markets. More to my point… now that we have the Hatch Law of Financial Fluctuations, or Hatch Equilibrium; will that knowledge be gamed to make it no longer effective and predictable. Like Time-Travel, knowing something before it happens and trying to change the events that would naturally occur, it will cause problems in unethical hands. We have proof of that with Credit Default Swaps, and Derivative trading, feeding false information to the press a-la Jim Cramer shorting philosophy, and Enron, AIG, and I think, Moore’s Law… these all culminate in exploitation. Instead of doing all of the innovating that is possible, computer professionals stick to the philosophy of doubling the number of transistors every two years… AIG exploited loose oversight and loopholes, offbook accounting, and so on.
Related posts:
- So, perhaps it isn't just a declining economy.
- "Unless you act, the financial system of this country and the world will melt down"
- Economic Planning, can it work, or will it be gamed?
- Spot Pricing and the exploitation of arbitrage positions.
- Ex-Countrywide Executives start purchasing bad mortgages they helped create?
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