I’ve been spending my nights crunching numbers and observations regarding the election in 2020. We are a few weeks out regarding the results, but I decided to jump into the pool with the following:
I’ll be placing prediction by county results over the next few days as I’ve done most of the interpretation. I won’t be able to go into detail regarding the predictions, and it is possible that my results may change if I find a confounding element as I dive deeper into the machinations of the election.
That said, I believe there are deeper elements at play than the marketing of either primary party, and that is about as far as I can go at this point.
I will not edit or remove this post or any of the per-state posts, and instead, I will create a new post and explain why the updated one is the most accurate. There too, I will not go into great detail as to WHY, but I will explain the additional confounding aspect. In most cases, the core foundation data point remains the same as to why I believe a county/state votes in a particular way.
One main element of the results is that third parties have not been accounted for in the results because my observation is that they have not played a major role in effecting the final results and they are currently a fraction of the voting body. Again, just my observation and it does impact the decimal place in my results, but not a substantial amount. It is important to note that its much easier to “pick a side” when there are only two options and the complexity of multiple parties hinders selection for those who do not want to engage fully in politics.
Note: DC has 3 electoral votes, but has been Democrat by a large margin since its inception. The reasons for this are accounted for in my notes, but this would reveal a large element of why the vote is predicted to be what it is for 2020. Slight hint.
More to come…