I’ve been spending my nights crunching numbers and observations regarding the election in 2020. We are a few weeks out regarding the results, but I decided to jump into the pool with the following:
| Democrat | Republican | |||
| Alabama | 9 | 9 | ||
| Alaska | 3 | 3 | ||
| Arizona | 11 | 11 | ||
| Arkansas | 6 | 6 | ||
| California | 55 | 55 | ||
| Colorado | 9 | 9 | ||
| Connecticut | 7 | 7 | ||
| Delaware | 3 | 3 | ||
| Florida | 29 | 29 | ||
| Georgia | 16 | 16 | ||
| Hawaii | 4 | 4 | ||
| Idaho | 4 | 4 | ||
| Illinois | 20 | 20 | ||
| Indiana | 11 | 11 | ||
| Iowa | 6 | 6 | ||
| Kansas | 6 | 6 | ||
| Kentucky | 8 | 8 | ||
| Louisiana | 8 | 8 | ||
| Maine | 4 | 4 | ||
| Maryland | 10 | 10 | ||
| Massachusetts | 11 | 11 | ||
| Michigan | 16 | 16 | ||
| Minnesota | 10 | 10 | ||
| Mississippi | 6 | 6 | ||
| Missouri | 10 | 10 | ||
| Montana | 3 | 3 | ||
| Nebraska | 5 | 5 | ||
| Nevada | 6 | 6 | ||
| New Hampshire | 4 | 4 | ||
| New Jersey | 14 | 14 | ||
| New Mexico | 5 | 5 | ||
| New York | 29 | 29 | ||
| North Carolina | 15 | 15 | ||
| North Dakota | 3 | 3 | ||
| Ohio | 18 | 18 | ||
| Oklahoma | 7 | 7 | ||
| Oregon | 7 | 7 | ||
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 20 | ||
| Rhode Island | 4 | 4 | ||
| South Carolina | 9 | 9 | ||
| South Dakota | 3 | 3 | ||
| Tennessee | 11 | 11 | ||
| Texas | 38 | 38 | ||
| Utah | 6 | 6 | ||
| Vermont | 3 | 3 | ||
| Virginia | 13 | 13 | ||
| Washington | 12 | 12 | ||
| West Virginia | 5 | 5 | ||
| Wisconsin | 10 | 10 | ||
| Wyoming | 3 | 3 | ||
| 374 | 161 |
I’ll be placing prediction by county results over the next few days as I’ve done most of the interpretation. I won’t be able to go into detail regarding the predictions, and it is possible that my results may change if I find a confounding element as I dive deeper into the machinations of the election.
That said, I believe there are deeper elements at play than the marketing of either primary party, and that is about as far as I can go at this point.
I will not edit or remove this post or any of the per-state posts, and instead, I will create a new post and explain why the updated one is the most accurate. There too, I will not go into great detail as to WHY, but I will explain the additional confounding aspect. In most cases, the core foundation data point remains the same as to why I believe a county/state votes in a particular way.
One main element of the results is that third parties have not been accounted for in the results because my observation is that they have not played a major role in effecting the final results and they are currently a fraction of the voting body. Again, just my observation and it does impact the decimal place in my results, but not a substantial amount. It is important to note that its much easier to “pick a side” when there are only two options and the complexity of multiple parties hinders selection for those who do not want to engage fully in politics.
Note: DC has 3 electoral votes, but has been Democrat by a large margin since its inception. The reasons for this are accounted for in my notes, but this would reveal a large element of why the vote is predicted to be what it is for 2020. Slight hint.
More to come…
