I’ve been spending my nights crunching numbers and observations regarding the election in 2020. We are a few weeks out regarding the results, but I decided to jump into the pool with the following:
Democrat | Republican | |||
Alabama | 9 | 9 | ||
Alaska | 3 | 3 | ||
Arizona | 11 | 11 | ||
Arkansas | 6 | 6 | ||
California | 55 | 55 | ||
Colorado | 9 | 9 | ||
Connecticut | 7 | 7 | ||
Delaware | 3 | 3 | ||
Florida | 29 | 29 | ||
Georgia | 16 | 16 | ||
Hawaii | 4 | 4 | ||
Idaho | 4 | 4 | ||
Illinois | 20 | 20 | ||
Indiana | 11 | 11 | ||
Iowa | 6 | 6 | ||
Kansas | 6 | 6 | ||
Kentucky | 8 | 8 | ||
Louisiana | 8 | 8 | ||
Maine | 4 | 4 | ||
Maryland | 10 | 10 | ||
Massachusetts | 11 | 11 | ||
Michigan | 16 | 16 | ||
Minnesota | 10 | 10 | ||
Mississippi | 6 | 6 | ||
Missouri | 10 | 10 | ||
Montana | 3 | 3 | ||
Nebraska | 5 | 5 | ||
Nevada | 6 | 6 | ||
New Hampshire | 4 | 4 | ||
New Jersey | 14 | 14 | ||
New Mexico | 5 | 5 | ||
New York | 29 | 29 | ||
North Carolina | 15 | 15 | ||
North Dakota | 3 | 3 | ||
Ohio | 18 | 18 | ||
Oklahoma | 7 | 7 | ||
Oregon | 7 | 7 | ||
Pennsylvania | 20 | 20 | ||
Rhode Island | 4 | 4 | ||
South Carolina | 9 | 9 | ||
South Dakota | 3 | 3 | ||
Tennessee | 11 | 11 | ||
Texas | 38 | 38 | ||
Utah | 6 | 6 | ||
Vermont | 3 | 3 | ||
Virginia | 13 | 13 | ||
Washington | 12 | 12 | ||
West Virginia | 5 | 5 | ||
Wisconsin | 10 | 10 | ||
Wyoming | 3 | 3 | ||
374 | 161 |
I’ll be placing prediction by county results over the next few days as I’ve done most of the interpretation. I won’t be able to go into detail regarding the predictions, and it is possible that my results may change if I find a confounding element as I dive deeper into the machinations of the election.
That said, I believe there are deeper elements at play than the marketing of either primary party, and that is about as far as I can go at this point.
I will not edit or remove this post or any of the per-state posts, and instead, I will create a new post and explain why the updated one is the most accurate. There too, I will not go into great detail as to WHY, but I will explain the additional confounding aspect. In most cases, the core foundation data point remains the same as to why I believe a county/state votes in a particular way.
One main element of the results is that third parties have not been accounted for in the results because my observation is that they have not played a major role in effecting the final results and they are currently a fraction of the voting body. Again, just my observation and it does impact the decimal place in my results, but not a substantial amount. It is important to note that its much easier to “pick a side” when there are only two options and the complexity of multiple parties hinders selection for those who do not want to engage fully in politics.
Note: DC has 3 electoral votes, but has been Democrat by a large margin since its inception. The reasons for this are accounted for in my notes, but this would reveal a large element of why the vote is predicted to be what it is for 2020. Slight hint.
More to come…