Election 2020 Prediction at State Level

I’ve been spending my nights crunching numbers and observations regarding the election in 2020. We are a few weeks out regarding the results, but I decided to jump into the pool with the following:

DemocratRepublican
Alabama9 9
Alaska3 3
Arizona11 11
Arkansas6 6
California55 55
Colorado9 9
Connecticut7 7
Delaware3 3
Florida29 29
Georgia16 16
Hawaii4 4
Idaho4 4
Illinois20 20
Indiana11 11
Iowa6 6
Kansas6 6
Kentucky8 8
Louisiana8 8
Maine4 4
Maryland10 10
Massachusetts11 11
Michigan16 16
Minnesota10 10
Mississippi6 6
Missouri10 10
Montana3 3
Nebraska5 5
Nevada6 6
New Hampshire4 4
New Jersey14 14
New Mexico5 5
New York29 29
North Carolina15 15
North Dakota3 3
Ohio18 18
Oklahoma7 7
Oregon7 7
Pennsylvania20 20
Rhode Island4 4
South Carolina9 9
South Dakota3 3
Tennessee11 11
Texas38 38
Utah6 6
Vermont3 3
Virginia13 13
Washington12 12
West Virginia5 5
Wisconsin10 10
Wyoming3 3
374161
Election Results Prediction

I’ll be placing prediction by county results over the next few days as I’ve done most of the interpretation. I won’t be able to go into detail regarding the predictions, and it is possible that my results may change if I find a confounding element as I dive deeper into the machinations of the election.

That said, I believe there are deeper elements at play than the marketing of either primary party, and that is about as far as I can go at this point.

I will not edit or remove this post or any of the per-state posts, and instead, I will create a new post and explain why the updated one is the most accurate. There too, I will not go into great detail as to WHY, but I will explain the additional confounding aspect. In most cases, the core foundation data point remains the same as to why I believe a county/state votes in a particular way.

One main element of the results is that third parties have not been accounted for in the results because my observation is that they have not played a major role in effecting the final results and they are currently a fraction of the voting body. Again, just my observation and it does impact the decimal place in my results, but not a substantial amount. It is important to note that its much easier to “pick a side” when there are only two options and the complexity of multiple parties hinders selection for those who do not want to engage fully in politics.

Note: DC has 3 electoral votes, but has been Democrat by a large margin since its inception. The reasons for this are accounted for in my notes, but this would reveal a large element of why the vote is predicted to be what it is for 2020. Slight hint.

More to come…

James Hatch

I talk about business, technology, and society. I create new products and services. That's the elevator pitch. Deeper than that, I research myriad topics for my consultancy. Academically speaking; I have received a Masters in Digital Forensics and Cyber Investigation, Masters in Information Technology with a focus on Information Security, a Masters in Business Administration with a focus on Marketing, a Bachelors in Entrepreneurism and Strategic Management, Associates in Business Administration, and Associates in Sociology. I'm also a Professor and Program Manager of Computer Science and Cybersecurity at the local Community College. Oh... I'm a gamer and streamer when I get a chance.

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