Although I completed my predictions more than 2 weeks ago, I’m finally posting them all. Delaware was one of my first assessments. It is small in size, and in population with just shy of 1 million people. Of those, only 443,000 (or so) voted. Now, we could drill down into the data about age, sex, income, education, race, and so on, but in a nutshell, New Castle is staying Blue in 2020. The other two counties are red, but Kent has a chance at swinging the other way in 2020. It would only add to the Blue nature of Delaware. Although I have my data confidence level set to Medium for the results about the county alignment, it is betrayed by a few other datapoints. That said, I can’t allow my personal and anecdotal observations to influence the true nature of us as human beings. We have something simmering under our skin. Something fundamental, but perhaps an evolutionary anomaly that we have misunderstood as having only light influence on our voting habits. What could it be and how could it possibly have persisted, even grown, over the millennia? It’s Halloween this month, and if I’m not spooking you in some way, I’m going to have to work harder. So, here is Delaware:
| Delaware Counties | Alignment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| .Kent County, Delaware | Red | Low |
| .New Castle County, Delaware | Blue | Medium |
| .Sussex County, Delaware | Red | Low |
As I mention in my posts, the analysis confidence level is an assessment of the data. The qualities that make up the high, medium, low confidence levels are fixed across all states, so the Medium confidence in one analysis is identical to the Medium in another analysis. In this instance, I’ll provide a bit of fidelity… Kent has a good chance of flipping to Blue in 2020.
