Oh Hawaii, how much I enjoyed visiting cannot be overstated. It was great the times I’ve been there. The environmental diversity is astounding. Even the volcanic eruptions, which I posted about during the most recent eruption activity took place, were beautiful. The destruction of property and possible loss of life is horrible, but I usually don’t have to state that.
Hawaii is firmly a Blue state. Honolulu County falls in my Medium confidence level, but to swing to Low, or to flip to Red would take something catastrophic. Perhaps a policy change where each county only has one place to drop off ballots or to vote. That would certainly constrain the ability to submit 500,000 votes across the 5 counties. Kalawao County is the smallest county, smack dab in the middle of the Hawaiian Island chain. I’m including it in the results, but its influence is very low. Hopefully I’m not giving someone any grandiose ideas about how to control election results. Instead, I’m promoting a frictionless election where the day is a national holiday, and everyone can submit and audit their election submissions anytime from October onward. That means, I can always find out how my vote was processed and where it landed. We have the technology to make our election processes durable (resistant to harm), neutral (resistant to political ideology), and elegant (resistant to policy/procedural changes that harm a voter). Why bring it up here? Well, because Hawaii is an isolate and high tech savvy state. Mitigated is access to influence the state by those who can simply drive across a state line and intimidate or control. It is an election bubble within a Covid-19 bubble within a geographic bubble, yet aware of its economic foundations. That said, here is Hawaii and my prediction about its alignment:
|.Honolulu County, Hawaii||Blue||Medium|
|.Maui County, Hawaii||Blue||Medium|
|.Kauai County, Hawaii||Blue||Medium|
|.Hawaii County, Hawaii||Blue||Medium|
|.Kalawao County, Hawaii||Blue||Medium|
As usual, the Medium confidence level implied a great amount of confidence, but aligned across all states, not internally to Hawaii counties. Within Hawaii, the confidence level is very high that the state will remain Blue in 2020.