Election 2020 – Nebraska Predictions by County

Nebraska is a state that is rather unique in its electoral construction. Basically that there are 3 districts that acquire electoral college votes. It isn’t unique entirely, but Maine is the only other that is broken up into Districts in that way. The interesting aspect of this is that District 3 is the construction of the brunt of counties and is a solid Republican voting bloc. District 1 is a construction of 16 counties, and District 2 is still smaller consisting of Douglas (Democrat leaning) and Sarpy (Republican leaning).

So, about Douglas and Sarpy, the Democrat contingent there appears to weakly lean, and albeit a large number, a spoiler in the race could negatively impact that hold. Sarpy, on the other hand, is not as weakly held in terms of vote. Social movements over the last two years have possibly impacted both of these findings with racial divide and conflict still high on the radar of those being impacted, and those wishing to keep the status quo.

The 3rd District consists of many low population regions, and the 1st District consists of Lancaster (Democrat leaning). Combined, these three regions form a complex picture of the election within Nebraska. While I could have selected the Second District as being given to the Democrat candidate, there is the possibility that it flip to Republican and it appears possible that the entire electoral vote go to one Candidate in which case it would be Republican instead of split across the three districts. So, Lancaster (District 1), and Douglas (District 2), are the primary contingent of Democrat leaning voters, the entirety of the rest of the state votes Republican for the most part. If the vote does get split, I can see that District 1 and 2 could both go to the Democrat, so add 3 votes to the Democrat side. Here are my observations:

Nebraska CountiesAlignmentConfidence
.Adams County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Antelope County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Arthur County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Banner County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Blaine County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Boone County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Box Butte County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Boyd County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Brown County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Buffalo County, NebraskaRedLow
.Burt County, NebraskaRedLow
.Butler County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Cass County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Cedar County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Chase County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Cherry County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Cheyenne County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Clay County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Colfax County, NebraskaRedLow
.Cuming County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Custer County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Dakota County, NebraskaRedLow
.Dawes County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Dawson County, NebraskaRedLow
.Deuel County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Dixon County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Dodge County, NebraskaRedLow
.Douglas County, NebraskaBlueLow
.Dundy County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Fillmore County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Franklin County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Frontier County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Furnas County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Gage County, NebraskaRedLow
.Garden County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Garfield County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Gosper County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Grant County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Greeley County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Hall County, NebraskaRedLow
.Hamilton County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Harlan County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Hayes County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Hitchcock County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Holt County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Hooker County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Howard County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Jefferson County, NebraskaRedLow
.Johnson County, NebraskaRedLow
.Kearney County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Keith County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Keya Paha County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Kimball County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Knox County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Lancaster County, NebraskaBlueLow
.Lincoln County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Logan County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Loup County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Madison County, NebraskaRedMedium
.McPherson County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Merrick County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Morrill County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Nance County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Nemaha County, NebraskaRedLow
.Nuckolls County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Otoe County, NebraskaRedLow
.Pawnee County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Perkins County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Phelps County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Pierce County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Platte County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Polk County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Red Willow County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Richardson County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Rock County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Saline County, NebraskaRedLow
.Sarpy County, NebraskaRedLow
.Saunders County, NebraskaRedLow
.Scotts Bluff County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Seward County, NebraskaRedLow
.Sheridan County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Sherman County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Sioux County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Stanton County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Thayer County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Thomas County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Thurston County, NebraskaRedLow
.Valley County, NebraskaRedHigh
.Washington County, NebraskaRedLow
.Wayne County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Webster County, NebraskaRedMedium
.Wheeler County, NebraskaRedHigh
.York County, NebraskaRedMedium

That’s it for now… more to come.

James Hatch

I talk about business, technology, and society. I create new products and services. That's the elevator pitch. Deeper than that, I research myriad topics for my consultancy. Academically speaking; I have received a Masters in Digital Forensics and Cyber Investigation, Masters in Information Technology with a focus on Information Security, a Masters in Business Administration with a focus on Marketing, a Bachelors in Entrepreneurism and Strategic Management, Associates in Business Administration, and Associates in Sociology. I'm also a Professor and Program Manager of Computer Science and Cybersecurity at the local Community College. Oh... I'm a gamer and streamer when I get a chance.

Leave a Reply